The FiveThirtyEight forecast gives Bernie Sanders a 73% chance to win the Nevada caucuses tomorrow.
Harry Enten: “Sanders clearly has a better shot than anyone else to win, but a seven in 10 shot is not an overwhelming favorite. It means that there’s a decent chance Sanders won’t win.”
“The lack of confidence we should have in the Nevada outcome is partially because of the lack of polling data, but also because the polling data has not been particularly predictive in the past.”
