Nate Silver: “At FiveThirtyEight, we actually had a formal definition of a ‘toss-up’, which is an election where each candidate had at least a 40 percent chance of winning. We’re now quite comfortably into that territory. As of this afternoon’s model run, Harris’s odds had improved to 44.6 percent, as compared to 54.
9 percent for Trump and a 0.5 percent chance of an Electoral College deadlock.”“It’s not exactly 50/50, but close enough that a poker player would call it a ‘flip’: Democrats have ace-king suited, and Republicans have pocket jacks.”