On the morning of Sept. 3, Russian President Vladimir Putin's private phone rang during his visit to Russia's Far East. The caller was Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, who wanted to talk to Putin about a cease-fire in the eastern part of Ukraine. What followed was an intense exchange of ideas.
This conversation came at a time when many people in Ukraine were growing weary of and impatient with fighting between government troops and pro-Russian separatist militants, which had continued for around five months.
After speaking with Poroshenko, Putin flew to Mongolia. After the two-hour flight, the Russian leader devoted himself to drawing up a memo. Before arriving in Mongolia, Putin jotted down a seven-point peace plan for Ukraine, which called for, among other things, a halt to fighting, an exchange of prisoners and the monitoring of a cease-fire.
That night, after meeting with his Mongolian counterpart in Ulan Bator, Putin held a press conference in which he read out this seven-point plan. "The warring parties should immediately coordinate and do the following things together," he said. On Sept. 5, almost all of the seven points in Putin's plan were included in a written agreement signed in Belarus by representatives from the Ukrainian government and pro-Russian forces.
Tipping points
Only a month before this, in early August, it seemed as if the Ukrainian government had the upper hand in the conflict. The situation deteriorated rapidly for pro-Russian separatist rebels after a Malaysian airliner had been shot down in July.
Ukrainian government troops had a huge advantage over pro-Russian rebel forces in terms of military equipment and numbers. The rebel strongholds of Luhansk and Donetsk were on the brink of falling to government troops. Many political experts in Russia predicted that Putin would suffer a setback due to the failure of the Kremlin's bid to turn the eastern part of Ukraine into a pro-Russian independent region. But things changed dramatically, starting with an abrupt change in rebel leadership.
Aleksander Borodai, a Russian national and the self-claimed "prime minister of the Donetsk People's Republic," resigned from this post. Borodai was said to be close to the Russian military and the Kremlin, but his forces had lost ground in the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
Alexander Zakharchenko, a Ukrainian national, became the new rebel leader. He said in mid-August that his forces received 150 armored vehicles, including about 30 tanks, and 1,200 fighters who had been trained in Russia for four months. This significant Russian military support would have been impossible without approval from Putin.
Around that time, there were frequent reports of Russian troop incursions into Ukrainian territory. The Russian government, including Putin, repeatedly denied these reports. These forces managed to rout Ukrainian government troops many times.
Russia had no choice but to launch covert military operations, if it were to achieve a cease-fire in eastern Ukraine under favorable terms for Moscow while fending off additional U.S. and European sanctions targeting the key sectors of the Russian economy.
Confident for a reason
Late on the night of Aug. 26, Putin held secret talks with Poroshenko on the third floor of the Independence Palace, Belarus' presidential residence, in Minsk.
According to sources who were with Putin on this trip to the Belarusian capital, the Russian leader repeatedly pressed Poroshenko for a cease-fire in eastern Ukraine. The game was essentially won.
On Aug. 29, a confident Putin told a lakeside youth camp in the northwestern Russian region of Tver that Russians and Ukrainians are "practically one people," as quoted by some media outlets.
Putin has led efforts to promote economic integration in the former Soviet Union and has had a strong desire to see Ukraine, the second-largest regional power, be a part. For Putin, Ukraine's joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization would be an unacceptable crossing of a red line.
The Russian leader continues to enjoy a public approval rating of more than 80% at home. The Sept. 5 cease-fire agreement in eastern Ukraine, which followed Russia's annexation of Crimea in southern Ukraine in March, has ensured pro-Russian forces' effective control of eastern Ukraine. Putin is effectively rocking the international community.
