Charlie Cook: “More than the border or the chaos of the Afghanistan pullout, it was the spike in inflation in 2021 and 2022 after the American Rescue Act funds hit bank accounts that cost Democrats the presidency. Demand surged, supply-chain problems worsened, and of course the Fed responded by hiking interest rates, which made everything from car loans to home-equity lines more expensive.
It all added up to a cumulative 20 percent surge in the cost of living.”“The misplaced expectation among Trump’s supporters that he will bring down prices (a virtual impossibility in the absence of a depression) is politically problematic by itself. The greater downside risk, however, is that prices could rise even further thanks to Trump’s widespread use of tariffs. It’s unlikely that such a scenario could cost Republicans the Senate, but it could mean greater losses in the House, which would render Trump the lamest of ducks in 2027 and 2028.”