Larry Sabato’s Cyrstal Ball notes there are at least three fairly consistent things that we see in midterms compared to presidential elections:
- The turnout of eligible voters in midterms is consistently lower than the turnout in the most recent presidential election.
- Midterm electorates are typically older, whiter, and more educated than presidential electorates.
- The non-presidential party usually wins a higher share of the two-party House vote in the midterm than that party did in the preceding presidential election.