Cook Political Report: “The House is so narrowly divided that developments that used to seem like drops in the bucket — a court striking down a redistricting map here, a retirement or special election there — have taken on outsized importance. And although House control hasn’t flipped during a presidential cycle since 1952, Republicans are defending slightly more vulnerable seats: We rate 17 GOP seats in Toss Up or more vulnerable, compared to 12 Democratic-held seats.
”“If our 24 Toss Ups were to break down the middle and every Lean, Likely or Solid seat were to break as expected, Democrats would gain two seats — about halfway to the majority. But as 2020 and 2022 illustrated, the Toss Up column tends to break in one party’s direction.”