Kristen Soltis Anderson: “Voters who lean toward Mr. Trump may well conclude that having to check in with a probation officer periodically won’t impede his performance as commander in chief.”
“Prison is different. The reality is that most voters are not anticipating that Mr. Trump will actually face incarceration.
In my data, only one in five thinks he is likely to get prison time, and most of those are already Biden voters. It isn’t hard to imagine a voter who isn’t crazy about Mr. Trump but leans toward voting for him, who thinks the trial and verdict itself were much ado about nothing, yet when confronted with the prospect of voting for a man who has been sentenced to prison has a strong reaction.”