Republican candidates for the Senate have overcome the sizable fund-raising edge held by their Democratic opponents for most of the 2014 election cycle, according to new disclosures filed with the Federal Election Commission, outraising or matching Democrats in races that will decide control of the Senate and entering the final weeks of the campaign with ample cash.
Republican candidates and “super PACs” are now splurging on expensive last-minute advertising, at a time when polling shows Republicans increasingly more likely to win control of the Senate. The question is whether the last-minute money, raised in the three months ending Sept.
30, is coming too late.Democrats exploited incumbency and an early campaign season free of divisive primaries to raise cash and buy advertising time months in advance, when it was cheaper. Even in races where they are now being outraised, Democrats have booked or aired more television spending for October and early November. Republicans rely more on outside groups and super PACs, which must pay higher rates for advertising, particularly in the coming days.
But the late infusion of money weakens one of the few advantages Democrats have had in an election in which they are defending far more Senate seats than Republicans are and in which President Obama has dragged down many of his party’s incumbents. Democratic candidates and the party’s Senate campaign committee have outraised Republicans for most of the campaign, though the network of conservative outside groups supporting Republicans has fielded more advertising than the liberal groups, most of it through nonprofit organizations that do not disclose their donors.
All told, in seven races for which both Democrats and Republicans provided complete fund-raising totals by Wednesday evening — Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan and North Carolina — Republicans held more cash in six of them, with a net advantage of about $7 million. At the same time, Democrats had booked more advertising from Sept. 29 through Election Day in at least five of those races, with the biggest advantages in North Carolina and Iowa, according to a Republican tracking media purchases. In Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia and Iowa, Republican contenders posted their best fund-raising quarter of the year. In Iowa, the Republican candidate, Joni Ernst, who narrowly leads in polling, raised $6 million, more than double the amount taken in by her Democratic opponent, Representative Bruce Braley, and reported three times as much in cash on hand than Mr. Braley. Representative Tom Cotton of Arkansas reported raising $3.8 million, far more than the Democratic incumbent, Senator Mark Pryor, who took in $2.2 million. In Colorado, Representative Cory Gardner raised $4.5 million and reported $1.4 million more in cash on hand than Senator Mark Udall, the Democratic incumbent.
Joni Ernst, the Republican vying with Bruce Braley, a Democrat, for a Senate seat in Iowa. Credit David Greedy/Getty Images
“In past cycles, you had candidates that have really disappointed people,” said Ray Washburne, a top Republican fund-raiser and the finance chairman of the Republican National Committee. “This time, they are seeing that great candidates have been recruited and vetted, and they are getting stronger as the race goes on, and not fumbling the ball.”
Mr. Udall spent $7.8 million between July and late September, including more than $1 million to purchase advertising that will run in the final weeks of the campaign. On Tuesday, Mr. Udall joined a conference call to plead with Washington lobbyists to help him raise another $800,000 by Election Day.
Tom Cotton, the Republican trying to unseat Senator Mark Pryor in Arkansas. Credit Danny Johnston/Associated Press
The late fund-raising by candidates has been matched by Republican Party committees and outside groups, all of which reported strong fund-raising in September. The Republican National Committee, which has invested heavily in get-out-the-vote efforts and data abilities this cycle, said on Tuesday that it would give $4 million to the National Republican Senatorial Committee to help win control of the Senate.
“People smell victory,” Mr. Washburne said.
American Crossroads, the super PAC founded by Karl Rove, raised $11 million, making September its best month yet in this campaign cycle. An affiliated political nonprofit, Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies, which does not disclose its donors, also received substantial new donations in September, an official confirmed. The group has purchased about $26 million in advertising for the last five weeks of the campaign, including new spending in Colorado and Iowa, and the group’s first advertising in the Senate race in New Hampshire.
“Our goal right now is to match the late surge in funding from Democrats and outside groups in these key states,” said Paul Lindsay, a Crossroads spokesman. “This late infusion will help us match the Democrat groups in a lot of these targeted Senate states.”
But advertising is no longer as cheap as it was even a few months ago. According to a Democrat tracking media purchases, advertising prices for party committees in the Denver market are currently more than three times higher than they were in June. In Charlotte, N.C., prices are about 50 percent higher than in June. In New Hampshire, where Scott Brown, the Republican candidate, is mounting a last-ditch effort to upset Senator Jeanne Shaheen, prices are almost six times higher.
The rising prices are making it expensive for Republican candidates to even the score. In Iowa, Ms. Ernst ended September with $2 million more than Mr. Braley. But as of Wednesday morning, two weeks later, Mr. Braley still had about twice as much late-campaign advertising booked as Ms. Ernst.
In Kentucky, Louisiana and North Carolina, the Republican candidates raised less than the Democrats but began October with more cash on hand. Thom Tillis, the speaker of the North Carolina State House of Representatives, who has struggled to attract big donors since winning his party’s nomination in May, nearly matched the cash intake of Senator Kay Hagan, one of the Democrats’ best fund-raisers. He ended the quarter with more money than Ms. Hagan, who spent an eye-popping $11.6 million during that period but who has also booked more than twice as much advertising time as Mr. Tillis, in dollar terms, for the final five weeks of the campaign.
“We have bulked up our buy in western North Carolina, where we were being outspent the most, and we are also putting resources toward low-propensity Republicans,” said Daniel Keylin, a Tillis spokesman. “Polling shows Thom has a lead with high-interest voters, and we are working to get some more low-propensity conservative Democrats in the pool.”