Cook Political Report: “The surprise move from Tillis moves this race into the Toss Up category and officially makes the Tar Heel State Democrats’ top pickup opportunity. The contest was already edging in this direction, but we had been awaiting former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s decision about whether to challenge Tillis.
”“The vulnerability of this seat, however, does not alter the overall Senate math for 2026. Even if Democrats were to win here in 2026, they’d still need to flip three more seats, including at least two in deep red states, in order to win a bare majority.”