Lakshya Jain says the polling average has Andrew Cuomo leading the Democratic mayoral primary in New York City by three percentage points — but that’s largely due to a late Yale Poll/YouGov survey that gave him a big 14-point lead.
“This is by no means an insurmountable or even an especially strong lead.
It’s basically a coin-flip. Cuomo is weakest among high-information voters, which makes a lot of sense when you consider how his gubernatorial tenure ended. Low-information voters and minorities tend to favor him. If the primary electorate is whiter or more engaged than what pollsters have modeled, he would easily lose.”