Nate Cohn: “Over the last month, one methodological decision seems to have produced two parallel universes of political polling.”
“In one universe, Kamala Harris leads only narrowly in the national popular vote against Donald Trump, even as she holds a discernible edge in the Northern battlegrounds. The numbers look surprisingly similar to the 2022 midterm election.
”“In the other, Ms. Harris has a clear lead in the national vote, but the battlegrounds are very tight. It’s essentially a repeat of the 2020 election.”
“This divide is almost entirely explained by whether a pollster uses ‘weighting on recalled vote,’ which means trying to account for how voters say they voted in the last election.”