Alan Abramowitz: “Just a couple of basic factors—House generic ballot polling and the number of seats the presidential party is defending—do a decent job of predicting midterm congressional election results.”
“This model suggests Democrats would be favored to win the House majority even without a substantial lead in House generic ballot polling.
”“The model also is bullish on Democrats in the Senate, but we urge caution on the findings, as the Senate model is historically less predictive than the House model and does not take into account this cycle’s specific Senate map.”