Edward Luce: “The only decent insurance is based on the worst-case scenario. On that basis, we have to assume that Trump’s victory would be taken as a green light by Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping to make big advances in their agendas. The US would pull out of Nato. Ukraine would be left to its own devices.
Allies and friends in Asia would have to adjust to a world in which the US no longer underwrites their security. Meanwhile, the US would abandon efforts to tackle global warming, uphold human rights and at least pay lip service to the rule-based international order. Trump’s plan for a 10 per cent tariff on all imports would make the open world trading system a distant memory.”“The most worrying hedge against Washington’s exit from Pax Americana would be a rush for the nuclear threshold. Among America’s allies, Japan, South Korea and Australia are each technically capable of going nuclear within months. It would be politically harder for Japan to cross that line given its unique history as the only target of nuclear attack. But the de facto removal of America’s nuclear umbrella would probably outweigh that moral legacy.”