Mark McKinnon: “Trump voters may be committed, but Harris voters are excited and enthusiastic. In August, the Harris–Tim Walz ticket enjoyed an eight-point lead when it came to voter enthusiasm. And there is a big difference in the ground game. Democrats are largely paying their field workers, while Republicans are mostly relying on volunteers.
These are factors not being picked up on the radar of the head-to-head polling.”“In addition, Trump suddenly seems not just lazy, weak (by dodging another debate, for instance), and old, but also truly out of it. Some days he makes it seem like the ’25’ in Project 2025 is a secret plan to execute the 25th Amendment if he actually gets elected, paving the way for—Lord help us—President JD Vance.”
“Meanwhile, Harris looks strong and confident. She’s demanding another debate. She’s marching into the lion’s den of Fox News and perhaps Joe Rogan’s podcast. She’s running clips of Dictatorial Donald at her rallies—to cheers and jeers. On the campaign trail, she’s enlisting the help of a raft of ready-for-prime-time players, including Barack Obama, other top Democrats, and a number of anti-Trump Republicans.”
“Finally, there is the gender gap. Yes, Trump has an advantage with men. But I believe that in the end, the Harris gender gap with women will shatter all previous records and be determinative.”